World Bank Cuts Vietnam’s 2025 Growth Forecast
The World Bank lowered Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast from 6.8% to 6.6%, citing slowing exports and weaker global demand. The figure falls well short of the government’s 8.3–8.5% target as trade tensions, tariffs, and supply chain risks weigh on the economy.
Vietnam’s Growth Outlook Reduced to 6.6% Amid Trade Pressures
The World Bank has downgraded Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast from 6.8% to 6.6%, significantly below the government’s ambitious 8.3–8.5% target. The revision follows a slowdown in export growth after a strong first half of 2025, reflecting weakening global demand and ongoing trade uncertainties.
Trade and Policy Concerns
The World Bank warned that as an export-oriented economy, Vietnam remains vulnerable to the global slowdown and weaker demand from key trading partners. Trade policy uncertainty is also weighing on both business sentiment and consumer confidence.
Tariffs from the United States
The downgrade comes after the U.S., Vietnam’s largest export market, imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods starting August 7, along with a 40% tariff on third-country re-exports. These measures are expected to further pressure Vietnam’s trade-driven economy.
Mid-Term Outlook
Despite near-term challenges, the World Bank projects Vietnam’s growth to rebound gradually:
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2026: 6.1% growth expected
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2027: 6.5% growth forecast, supported by global trade recovery and Vietnam’s strong manufacturing competitiveness.
Government Warnings
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh cautioned that rising trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain disruptions could fuel inflation and currency pressures, complicating economic management in the coming years.
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